The profit made by U.S. TV networks might shrink by 41% to $22 billion by 2025, according to analyst Todd Juenger of Sanford Bernstein.

Juenger said his fairly dire assessment is based on a set of relatively benign assumptions.

He posited pay-TV subscribers falling to 82 million over the next seven years from about 97 million now. That includes virtual MVPDs growing to 18 million subs from 5 million now.

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